Manajemen Stok Produk Lcd Untuk Meminimalisir Over Stock & Out Of Stock Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES)

Abstract

Golden Store is a distributor selling a wide variety of LCD (liquid crystal display) products, with volatile market demand leading to fluctuations in sales. This problem leads to overstocking and out-of-stock. This occurs due to the store owner's lack of strong forecasting skills in predicting future sales to determine appropriate stock requirements and the store owner's lack of preparedness in managing stock requirements for specific items. Based on these problems, innovation is needed to manage inventory and predict future sales to generate recommended stock requirements. Double exponential smoothing is a forecasting method for time series data that assigns two weights, alpha and beta, to actual data, namely LCD spare part sales data in 2023. To implement the DES method in the system being developed, the Extreme Programming (XP) method is used as a system development method to build a stock management system with predictive features that can produce reliable predictions. The system testing results used black box testing as the alpha test and in-depth interviews as the beta test, with six respondents. Based on the implementation and test results, the developed stock management system can minimize overstock and out-of-stock issues with its prediction features and detailed inventory information. The application of the double exponential smoothing (DES) method functioned effectively in predicting future sales to generate stock recommendations, which serve as a basis for store owners to determine the appropriate stock requirements for the upcoming period.